About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement CONCORD, N.C. -- After Kyle Larson padded his points lead in the NASCAR Cup Series at Charlotte Motor Speedway, the field of true Chase contenders is getting thinner.
Kyle Larson leads Denny Hamlin by 49 points, Christopher Bell by 51, Chase Briscoe by 65, Ryan Blaney by 85 and Joey Logano by 92 heading to Phoenix Raceway this Sunday.
Although Blaney and Logano are more than a race worth of points, Blaney has won the last two races at Phoenix, two of the last three fall races at Martinsville Speedway and dominated the last race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Logano has also won two of the last four fall races at Phoenix. He also led laps at Martinsville and ran well at Phoenix in the spring. Both of them are cream of the crop for Penske's prowess on superspeedways too.
Chase Briscoe winning the last two races shows how quickly a driver can close in on the championship lead. After Kansas Speedway, two races ago, Briscoe was 123 points out of the lead and has gained 58 points since then.
Winning two races and gaining the same points could put Hamlin or Bell in the lead. It could also put Blaney at 27 points out of the lead and Logano at 34 points out.
However, time is running out to put together two strong races, not to mention Larson having an issue. Talladega near the end is also going to make earning big points very hard.
At Phoenix, Larson earned 36 points by starting second, finishing ninth in the second stage and finishing third in the race. Here's how everyone else compared:
Denny Hamlin (-49): 47 points at Phoenix in the spring: Finished fifth overall, fifth and second in the stages after starting 11th
Christopher Bell (-51): 54 points: Second overall, second and first in the stages after starting 12th
Chase Briscoe: (-65): 1 point: No stage points but made it into the top-10 before crashing out on lap 132, finished 37th
Ryan Blaney (-85): 65 points: Won the race and won the first stage after starting fifth
Joey Logano (-92): 23 points: Won the pole, finished third in each stage before finishing 31st after a crash on lap 254 (73 laps led)
If Phoenix plays out similarly, Hamlin would gain 11 points, Bell would gain 18 and Blaney would gain 29 but Briscoe would lose 35 and Logano would lose 22.
The only comparable race under similar conditions in the Cup Series that are similar to what they'll race with at Phoenix is World Wide Technology Raceway Gateway. Larson won there after earning 18 stage points, Logano finished third with 19 stage points, Blaney earned 14 stage points, Bell earned nine stage points and Hamlin earned five.
Phoenix should see Larson giving up some points, given his so-so record there. To paraphrase Larson in the spring, Hendrick Motorsports has never been that good at the 1-mile, D-shaped oval in the desert but Hamlin, Bell, Briscoe, Blaney and Logano have all had their merits at the track.
Just behind them, no one really has had a comparable record. Tyler Reddick (-114) has been average among the greats. Meanwhile, Austin Cindric (-145) has been strong lately but is more of a feelgood story than an infallible pick for any kind of massive comeback.
The other five besides Larson should feel like they need to win. Considering the spring race and the currents of the Cup Series, expect Bell, Blaney and Logano to be the favorites.
Stat: In 10 editions of the original Chase without eliminations, the points leader with four races to go won the championship seven times:
Kurt Busch (2004, +96 points), Tony Stewart (2005, +15), Jimmie Johnson (2008, +149), Jimmie Johnson (2009, +118), Jimmie Johnson (2010, +6), Brad Keselowski (2012, +7), Jimmie Johnson (2013, +4).
Busch's lead in 2004 is most comparable to what Larson has now. Busch led by a gap equivalent to 59.6% of the possible points you can earn in one race, while Larson now leads by 65.3% of the possible points. The 2004 championship came down to the equivalent of two positions worth of points over second and three positions worth over third.
With Talladega ahead, Larson notoriously not running well on drafting tracks and supercharged points for wins, the race is still up in the air between the top six drivers.
The NASCAR Cup Series' 50-minute practice session at Phoenix goes green Saturday, Oct. 17, at 4:30 p.m. ET on truTV. Qualifying will follow. The race is Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on USA.
Footnote: Here's how far back the champion had to come from the years where they were down in the Chase after six postseason races: Jimmie Johnson (2006, -41; 2007, -53), Tony Stewart (2011, -19)
Source: Sports
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